Assessor-County Clerk-Recorder-Elections

January 30, 2008

Contact:
Warren Slocum, Chief Elections Officer
Phone: (650) 363-4988 E-mail: wslocum@smcare.org

Aternate:
David Tom, Elections Manager
Phone: (650) 312-5222 E-mail: dtom@smcare.org

Turnout
San Mateo County’s Chief Election Officer Predicts High Turnout

Redwood City, CA – With the conclusion of the Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and Florida primaries and caucuses, the focus moves to California and the other 21 states that will be holding primary elections on February 5th.

“Now, it’s our turn!” said Warren Slocum, Chief Elections Officer of San Mateo County. “If there is one thing that has remained constant throughout American electoral history, it is this. When voters have a real reason to vote, they will make certain that their voice is heard.”

“I believe California’s overall turnout will reach 66% and San Mateo County’s may reach as high as 71%,” said Warren Slocum. “This election more resembles the California Recall Election than presidential primaries held in the past because there’s only one candidate on the ballot, and that candidate is seeking the highest office possible.”

Voter turnout has not exceeded 60 percent since 1980. The ‘60s and ‘70s had turnouts of 63 percent (1960), 72 percent (1964), 72 percent (1968) and 71 percent (1972). Here are some factors to consider for the turnout at California’s 2008 February Presidential Primary.

The February 5th Presidential Primary is one for the history books
Voters have diverse choices for their party’s presidential nominations this year—the first female, the first African-American, a former prisoner of war, a former governor and highly successful businessman whose father was a revered statesman, and a candidate who raised the most campaign dollars in a single day are all part of the field of candidates that remain. All are respected, thoughtful people. More importantly, not one of them has a lock on their party’s nomination.

California matters
In the past few decades, the results of the California Presidential Primaries have not made a difference in the outcome of any presidential nomination contest. This year they will. In fact, California may be the deciding factor, or at least seriously contribute to the selection of the major party presidential nominees. The decision to move California’s Presidential Primary to February 5 put California voters in the position to tip the scales and decide the fate of this election.

The ballot
There are four important state propositions before California’s voters asking their permission to expand the number of slot machines in four Indian tribal casinos in exchange for badly needed revenue that would help to offset the California state budget crisis. Term limits, a lightning rod issue among voters, is on the ballot for the first time since the current term limits were approved. A funding mechanism for community colleges is up for consideration and it is a concern among young people on college campuses throughout the state. And finally, four local school district jurisdictions are asking voters to decide whether or not they will support funding mechanisms needed for capital improvements and operations. This ballot asks voters to make critical decisions.

The Decline-to-State (DTS) Voters
California, as part of a 22-state “national primary,” holds national prominence for its size, diversity, and the fact that it has a “semi-open” primary that will allow the participation of Decline-to-State (DTS) voters in the Democratic and American Independent Party primaries. More than 20% of the voters in San Mateo County, and for that matter, California, are DTS voters. Now that the Florida Primary is settled, the presidential campaigns have moved their attention to California and are focused on the DTS voters. “Given the historically high concentrations of Democratic voters in the Bay Area, a semi-open primary and the high number of DTS voters, I expect turnout to be greater this election than any held in the past 30 years,” explained Slocum who watches these indicators not just out of interest, but as a professional who is responsible to help manage expectations and election day operations for poll workers, election professionals and voters alike.

The Presidential Campaigns have our undivided attention
Usually, presidential nominees compete with the campaign messages and fundraising efforts of officeholders and challengers for Congress, State Senate, State Assembly, Judicial Offices as well as state propositions and local measures. “This year, those running for president in California have our undivided attention,” Slocum said. Local party organizers are free to devote all their time, support and attention to the presidential nominees. And, according to local news accounts, they are. “Even though presidential nominees are running in 22 states on Tsunami Tuesday, I believe the exclusive focus on the presidential race in California has created a paradigm shift in the minds of our voters. They are paying attention; they understand what’s at stake and have studied the choices before them. They are ready to shape the future of this country at the ballot box,” said Slocum.

Young people may mobilize like never before
As reported in our blog, twenty-two percent of Iowa caucus goers were under the age of 30, and the 43 percent turnout of 18 to 29-year olds at the New Hampshire primary was a 271 percent increase from four years ago. With the controversial war in Iraq, the cost of student loans and other issues—young people are mobilizing and voting. “This year, young people are encouraging older people to vote. That’s a switch!” said Slocum.

While San Mateo County, compared with other counties, has fewer younger voters, I expect we’ll see substantial increases in their participation. It may not be as large as counties like Alameda and Los Angeles, which have larger numbers of 18 to 29-year old voters, but it will be high.

California will respond
In Iowa, the Democratic turnout at the caucuses set a record 239,000, twice the Republican turnout and nearly twice the Democratic turnout of four years ago. New Hampshire had nearly a 40% increase. The Democratic Primary turnout in South Carolina was 530,000—nearly twice the turnout of the 2004 Democratic Primary. In Nevada, more that 117,000 voted in the Democratic caucuses, compared with 9,000 who participated in 2004.

Advice for voters
When asked what advice he would give voters, Slocum responded, “Double-check the location of your polling place (many have changed locations), be prepared to vote (bring your Sample Ballot with you), and go to the polls to vote during the off hours. There could be lines at the polls, so give yourself a little extra time and be patient with our poll workers.”

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